With the November 3 midterm elections three weeks away, Democrats are favored to retake the House of Representatives and have turned the Senate — long considered out of reach — into a genuinely competitive fight, according to polling averages and nonpartisan projections reported October 6 through 9.
The Cook Political Report forecasts a net Democratic gain of five to 15 House seats, which would put the party at 220 to 230 seats in January, comfortably above the 218 needed for a majority, NPR reported on October 6. Its latest ratings, published October 9, project Democrats at 213 seats to Republicans’ 201, with 21 races rated as toss-ups.
The Senate picture has shifted even more sharply. Six Senate seats have moved in Democrats’ direction since June in the Cook ratings, and the October 9 projection puts Democrats at 47 seats to Republicans’ 46, with seven toss-up races still unallocated. When the cycle began, a Democratic Senate majority was widely treated as a long shot.
The shift reflects a punishing national mood for the president’s party. President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 37 percent, tied for the lowest pre-midterm approval of any president in the last half century — a mark previously matched only by George W. Bush in 2006, when Republicans lost both chambers. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found 53 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of the president’s performance, the highest figure ever recorded in that survey, and voters continue to blame the administration for costs that have kept rising.
Polling aggregators tell a similar story on the national ballot. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,794 likely voters conducted in late September found Democrats leading Republicans 47 percent to 44 percent on the generic congressional ballot. With 19 House toss-ups and seven Senate toss-ups still unresolved, the final three weeks of campaigning will decide whether the projected Democratic wave materializes.
